The ominous math of the Ebola epidemic

Ebola Cases And Deaths October 2014 - Photo by Leopoldo Martin R

When the experts describe the Ebola disaster, they do so with numbers. The statistics include not just the obvious ones, such as caseloads, deaths and the rate of infection, but also the ones that describe the speed of the global response.

Right now, the math still favors the virus.

Global health officials are looking closely at the “reproduction number,” which estimates how many people, on average, will catch the virus from each person stricken with Ebola. The epidemic will begin to decline when that number falls below one. A recent analysis estimated the number at 1.5 to 2.

The number of Ebola cases in West Africa has been doubling about every three weeks. There is little evidence so far that the epidemic is losing momentum.

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1 thought on “The ominous math of the Ebola epidemic”

  1. The vulnerability of Ebola is there is no “cure” yet for the virus killing people.
    Yet we do have some effective homopathic medical things that actually work. How well they work is a matter of medical opinion that I am really not quite competant to judge.
    Our entire Medical field is contaminated with their tools to fight viruses. The Pharmacy Industry pretty much dictates what you can and canont do. And that is just plain wrong.
    While there is no cure there might be things we can do. These go against the grain for most doctors to use because they are firmly entrenched in patented medicines put out by the drug industry.
    In essence, a combination of natural over the counter homeopathic medicine might buy us time. Directly pumping Vitamin C into the body might work. But I am straying because only a real doctor should determine if that will help. D3 is another thing that should be used. It is a shotgun treatment aimed at a variety of diseases including viruses. There are supplements out there to help prevent hemorage.
    I think the key is to keep the later stages of the disease from killing the patient while the immune system works to get rid of it.
    If I were attempting to keep a patient alive I would try just about anything that has a chance of working. This is one incident where the Medical Association is dealing with things they really do not want to hear. Mainly because instead of fantastically expensive drugs we might be dealing with over the counter items that cost very little.
    C complex, D complex, A and E, all have dramatic effects in restoring the immune system that might be a key to keeping people alive long enough for their immune system to fight back. Alpha Lipotic Acid and Iodine may have some dramatic results. I am just saying that last year, a patient with a very bad flu virus was cured with advanced use of vitamins in New Zealand. He was literally on his death bed when the family had to go to court to get the doctor involved to use the vitamin style treatment directly into his body. That doctor fought them tooth and nail to keep it from happening even when the results were a return towards health. That was astounding to me and a real eye opener.

    This entrenchment of patented drugs in the doctor’s tools for disease is the problem. They have to use whatever works, not what the drug industry dictates. If they are so firmly entrenched in the doctor’s mind then when the drug industry has found no cure, they are in effect lost.
    The problem is that some doctors equate expensive with what works. It just isn’t necessarily so.
    In the case of an Ebola Epidemic we are lookng at extensive stays in a hospital that has to sterilize everything that comes in contact with the patient’s body fluids. What is needed is a home solution that will work. That cuts out the hospital and the doctor from receiving massive amounts of money for a treatment that ultimately leaves the patient dead.
    Logistically breaking everyone financially to fight Ebola in a hospital just will not work. It might even save the patient but at what cost?
    If we end up with massive bankruptcies all over the place it doesn’t matter if we win against the disease because the patient can no longer support himself in the real world. My point being that we have to fix this. We have to take a different approach to curing Ebola.
    I suggest that it will have to be treated at home. That is extremely dangerous. Look at the alternatives.
    The hospitals are simply not set up to handle an epidemic.
    The closest thing we have to being able to handle an epidemic is military hospitals. These military hospitals are quite capable of handling massive amounts of patients because of the nature of war.
    I suggest also that we need a plastic solution that will be pinned to the walls of a room that keeps the entire area air tight. That means pumping air in and out of the room. The out of the room needs to be some kind of filter that kills the virus before it gets out of the room.
    Ultra-violet light might work but I leave that to engineers and medical people.
    It means using things in the home that are normally only found in a hospital.
    Afterwards the entire setup needs to be melted down and all viruses and germs killed.
    A solution is needed so that the toilet facilities are not contaminated in the home as well. My solution means home care and it means specially trained people to come in and monitor the situation.
    The advantage is going to be no massive hospital bills.
    I suggest this plastic solution will keep the virus isolated. No hospital can keep a virus isolated.
    I suggest that this plastic tent-like devise(probably a huge rectangle in the room) may allow home care of the patient. I also suggest extensive use of the internet conference system to observe the patient with web cams instead of personal visits that lead to medical people getting infected.
    The internet is all ready set up to handle isolation of a fatal disease. I can think of at least two programs all ready in use to handle school at home. We use a company called K12 to teach our grandchild. The advantage of home schooling is no security is needed outside of normal precautions like locked doors. No passing on flu bugs to everyone else in the school system. No weather breaks in the schooling because there is no transportation needs. Australia has been using this system for a good number of years in the outback. It actually has a better record of teaching than the school system has. They are also sensitive to individual needs. The Con side is it takes a lot of time on the part of at least one parent or grandparent to make it work for the child. The parent is often the teacher on the home side of the situation.
    The other part of this solution is you pick your own hours to teach the child.
    Basically at least one computer with windows Vista or better is needed to make this home schooling work.
    HazMat suits are terrible. They often cook the person using them. One moment of carelessness means another patient.
    In the long term, we have to change the way we treat patients and the Doctors and medical staff have to be given insurance against catching the diseases they are treating. No one wins if you bankrupt the patient in the process of curing them.

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