Most people out there still seem to believe that the war in the Middle East will rapidly come to a conclusion and economic conditions will return to normal soon. Meanwhile, the price of physical oil is going absolutely nuts, the price of fertilizer is going absolutely nuts, and we are being warned that a “summer of shortages” is looming on the horizon if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. What we are going to be facing in the months ahead very much depends upon the duration of the war. Unfortunately, as you will see below, it does not appear that a peace deal with Iran is going to happen any time soon.
According to the Daily Mail, citizens of the UK are being warned to brace themselves for a “summer of shortages”…
Brits are being braced for a summer of shortages with warnings that chicken and pork are among a swathe of products at risk from the Iran war.
We have never seen a “summer of shortages” in the western world.
So most of us have no idea what that would look like.
According to the BBC, in a “worst case scenario” there could actually be shortages of chicken and pork in the months ahead…
The UK could face food shortages, including chicken and pork, by the summer if the Iran war continues, in a worst case scenario drawn up by government officials.
A government source told the BBC it was planning for a scenario which would involve the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz and breakdowns in the supply of carbon dioxide (CO2), which is used in the slaughter of some animals and in food preservation.
A spokesperson from the Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs said it would continue to work closely with businesses to tackle the impact of the war.
Hopefully a worst case scenario will not materialize.
But right now the Iranians seem to be in no mood to release the stranglehold that they have on the Strait of Hormuz.
As a result, there could be widespread shortages of jet fuel in Europe in just six weeks…
Europe may have just six weeks left of jet fuel, with serious consequences for the continent’s economy, the International Energy Agency warned on Thursday.
“Several European countries may start to face shortages of jet fuel in the next 6 weeks, depending how much they are able to import from international markets to replace the lost supply from the Middle East, which accounted for 75% of Europe’s net imports of jet fuel previously,” the IEA told CNBC in an emailed statement.
Earlier, IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said the Strait of Hormuz blockade will result in “the largest energy crisis we have ever faced,” in an interview with The Associated Press on Thursday.
If you need to fly somewhere, I wouldn’t wait too much longer.
During the months ahead we could also see rationing of fuel and electricity.
In fact, it is being reported that Pakistan is already shutting down electricity generation “for about two hours during the evenings”…
Pakistan will suspend electricity supply for about two hours during the evenings, an effort to manage the cost of power as the Iran war further shakes the energy-poor country, reported Bloomberg on Wednesday.
Demand raises significantly between 5 p.m. and 1 a.m., due in part to reduced hydropower generation, the Pakistani government said in a statement on Wednesday. Potential gaps would have to be met through fossil fuels that have become more expensive after the Iran war disrupted flows plunging the region into an energy crisis.
Some people in Pakistan are claiming that electricity generation is down for much more than just two hours a day.
But those are just anecdotal reports at this point.
Sadly, things will get so much worse if the Strait of Hormuz does not get reopened soon.
Earlier this week, HSBC Group CEO Georges Elhedery made headlines when he discussed the historic crisis that is now upon us.
He is claiming that the highest price that he has seen so far for a barrel of physical oil is 286 dollars…
“What worries me is not the headlines. I mean, oil headline is above $100, $110. Realistically, if you are now trying to get oil from the Middle East, you may be paying $140, $150.
Realistically, if you try to get oil from the Red Sea, you are paying more than $30, $40 for shipping. Insurance costs, which used to be 25 basis points, is more like 5%, and war insurance has been scrapped — you’re paying 5% without even the war insurance component.
So the barrel of oil door to door or the barrel of refined oil door to door is way above the headline price of oil. The highest I’ve seen, and I’m hoping we don’t see more of that, but the highest I’ve seen is $286 for a barrel of oil that reached Sri Lanka. This is not a country and an economy that can easily afford these kind of prices sustainably.”
I was absolutely stunned when I read that.
I knew that the price of physical oil for immediate delivery had become completely disconnected from oil futures, but I didn’t realize that things were already this bad.
And the price of fertilizer has been rising at an exponential rate in recent weeks…
If you have been keeping up with my recent articles, you already know why that chart is such a big deal.
Needless to say, we desperately need a diplomatic breakthrough.
It would be so wonderful if Iran would just allow traffic to flow through the Strait of Hormuz like it did before.
But the Iranians are insisting that they are in charge of the Strait from now on, and they are demanding that any commercial vessels that they allow to pass through the waterway must pay a very large toll that is to be paid using Iranian banks…
An Iranian parliament official has been cited in newswires as saying the country’s planned Strait of Hormuz toll for ships seeking to pass is to be paid through Iranian banks. Previously it was said to be through cryptocurrency, and could be as a high as $2 million Oil rose higher, given this is another indicator this game of chicken in the narrow waterway could soon lead to fresh hostilities, despite the 2-week ceasefire still being in place, soon to expire.
The Trump administration is hoping to break Iran’s resolve by blockading all Iranian ports.
So far, 13 vessels that attempted to travel to or from Iranian ports have been turned back…
The U.S. Navy has turned back 13 ships since its blockade of Iranian ports in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman began more than 24 hours earlier, the Pentagon said Thursday.
President Donald Trump announced the blockade on Sunday after complaining that Tehran has not appeared to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, one of his conditions for agreeing to the fragile two-week ceasefire that is currently in effect.
The attempt to ratchet pressure on Iran began after an initial round of U.S.-Iran peace talks failed over the weekend.
I don’t think that this blockade is going to force the Iranians to give in.
If that doesn’t work, U.S. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth is warning that the U.S. military is ready to bomb them into oblivion…
Secretary Hegseth sends a DIRECT MESSAGE to Iran from the Pentagon
“To IRGC leadership, we’re watching you.
Our capabilities are NOT the same, our military and yours.
Remember, this is NOT a fair fight, and we know what military assets you are moving and where you are moving them to.
You are digging out, which is exactly what you’re doing— digging out of bombed out and devastated facilities, and we are only getting stronger.”
“We are locked and loaded on your critical dual-use infrastructure, on your remaining power generation, and your energy industry.
We’d rather not have to do it, we are ready to go at command of our president and the push of a button.”
Unfortunately, Iranian leaders have not been swayed by such threats.
In fact, they do not plan to meet with U.S. negotiators again until the U.S. quits making “excessive demands”…
Right now, the U.S. and Iran are not even in the same universe as far as what a reasonable conclusion to this war would look like.
During the recent peace talks in Pakistan, Vice-President JD Vance delivered the Trump administration’s “final offer” to the Iranians.
Sadly, the Iranians were not interested at all, and they are making all sorts of threats. Here is just one example…
Iran’s Seyed Mohammad Marandi:
“Because of Netanyahu and Trump, Iran is preparing to destroy everything in the Persian Gulf – including all critical infrastructure in the UAE, Saudi, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait. Temperatures will rise, the Peninsula will become uninhabitable, and the global economy will crash.”
It appears that a lot more fighting is still ahead.
Of course that means that the Strait of Hormuz will likely be closed for an extended period of time.
So I would encourage you to prepare yourself for a “summer of shortages”, because a “worst case scenario” appears to be the most likely scenario at this stage.
Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.
About the Author: Michael Snyder’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com. He has also written nine other books that are available on Amazon.com including “Chaos”, “End Times”, “7 Year Apocalypse”, “Lost Prophecies Of The Future Of America”, “The Beginning Of The End”, and “Living A Life That Really Matters”. When you purchase any of Michael’s books you help to support the work that he is doing. You can also get his articles by email as soon as he publishes them by subscribing to his Substack newsletter. Michael has published thousands of articles on The Economic Collapse Blog, End Of The American Dream and The Most Important News, and he always freely and happily allows others to republish those articles on their own websites. These are such troubled times, and people need hope. John 3:16 tells us about the hope that God has given us through Jesus Christ: “For God so loved the world, that he gave his only begotten Son, that whosoever believeth in him should not perish, but have everlasting life.” If you have not already done so, we strongly urge you to invite Jesus Christ to be your Lord and Savior today.