If there’s no Greece deal, then what?

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• If Greece misses a $1.8. billion loan repayment due to the IMF on June 30 it becomes the only major advanced economy to renege on a payment to the international institution. Usually, the IMF affords a 30-day grace period before its declares technical default, although IMF Managing Director Chrsitine Lagarde has said Greece will get no such grace period.

• The European Central Bank has been pumping billions into Greece’s banking system to meet its short-term funding needs. If Greece defaults on its debt, the ECB would probably have to stop providing that emergency liquidity because the value of Greece’s banking assets, and the government’s overall solvency, would be called into question.

• Global markets, which have mostly adopted a wait-and-see approach as the crisis has dragged on for months, would likely see sharp falls as investors rushed to gauge the impact and isolate any contagion.

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