Everyone is starting to figure out that there isn’t going to be enough oil. The Iranians have closed the Strait of Hormuz, the Houthis are targeting Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, and the Ukrainians are relentlessly attacking Russian energy infrastructure. The reality of what we are facing is finally starting to set in on Wall Street. As I write this article, the price of Brent crude has crossed the $100 threshold, the Dow has dropped more than 500 points, the Nasdaq has dropped more than 600 points, and U.S. Treasury yields have been flying all over the place. For a long time investors tried really hard to ignore what was happening on the other side of the globe, but now things have gotten so bad that they simply cannot do that any longer.
Thanks to multiple wars that the U.S. is currently involved in, global oil markets have been thrown into a state of chaos…
The second wave of the US-Iran conflict shows no signs of letting up. Attacks by the Houthi militia have threatened to curtail shipping through the Red Sea. Russia’s refineries are buckling under the weight of bombardment by the Ukrainian military.
For global oil markets, already in a precarious situation, critical logistical nodes just keep getting thwarted. Things keep going wrong.
There has been so much focus on what has been taking place in the Middle East, and I will have quite a bit to say about that in a moment.
But it is also important to recognize that the rapidly escalating conflict between Russia and Ukraine is also driving up the price of oil.
In fact, it is being reported that Ukraine has “attacked more than 150 tankers in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov this month”…
The Ukraine-Russia war is also putting pressure on global oil markets, Croft said. Kyiv has attacked more than 150 tankers in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov this month, she said. The tanker attacks have forced the Caspian Pipeline Consortium to stop loading crude at its Black Sea terminal.
About 80% of Kazakhstan’s crude is exported through that pipeline, Croft said.
“The duration of closure remains uncertain, but alternate routes for Kazakhstan are limited (and unlikely to fully offset CPC), meaning production (1.7 mb/d in June) could face shut-ins,” the analyst said.
This is a really big deal, and hardly anyone is talking about it.
Meanwhile, the crisis in the Middle East just escalated to another new level.
Less than 24 hours ago, the Houthis in Yemen successfully targeted two Saudi oil tankers that were attempting to slip past their blockade…
The Iran-backed Houthis struck two Saudi oil tankers on Thursday that they accused of violating a naval blockade imposed by the group, signaling a potential new front in the US-Iran conflict, as the US military struck Iran for the 12th successive night.
The attack came after the Houthis said on Monday that they were imposing a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia, a move that could significantly widen the war and strain the US military.
Yemen’s Houthis said they targeted two Saudi oil tankers, identified as Encelia and Laylia, saying the vessels violated their naval blockade.
Investors didn’t like this at all, and it is the primary reason why we are talking about $100 oil again.
In addition, the Houthis are claiming that their blockade forced 10 other commercial vessels to turn around before getting to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait…
The Houthis claimed they had also forced “10 ships to retreat and return.” That claim could not be independently verified, The Times said, but at least six vessels reversed course in the Red Sea on Monday and Tuesday after the Houthis warned shipping companies to avoid Saudi ports, according to Kpler, a maritime data company. It was not clear if those ships were part of the Houthis’ claims.
Everyone knows that the Iranians asked the Houthis to do this.
And now we have learned that Iran actually flew “military advisers and missile- and drone-related equipment into Yemen this month”…
Iran flew Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commanders, military advisers and missile- and drone-related equipment into Yemen this month, according to four sources, in a move that suggests Tehran is seeking to strengthen the ability of its Houthi allies to threaten Red Sea shipping.
Four sources familiar with the matter, including two Iranian sources, Yemen’s information minister and a regional security analyst, said Iran transferred the IRGC personnel and military-related equipment on a flight from Tehran to Yemen on July 13, a development that has not been previously reported.
The two Iranian sources told Reuters that between 10 and 21 IRGC personnel, including senior commanders, were on the Mahan Air flight.
The Iranians think that they are really going to put the squeeze on us by having the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait closed simultaneously.
President Trump is very angry about this, and he has told the entire world that the U.S. will hold Iran responsible for whatever the Houthis do…
Threats aren’t going to cause the Iranians and the Houthis to back down.
And there is no end in sight for the war between Russia and Ukraine.
A lot more fighting is ahead, and that means that the global energy crisis is going to continue to intensify.
For months, Wall Street tried to ignore what has happening.
But now one Wall Street strategist is telling us that it is simply “too hard to ignore $100 oil”…
“These problems became too big to ignore,” said Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, about the move in stocks on Thursday. “It’s too hard to ignore $100 oil. It’s too hard to ignore 10-year rates that are above 4.70%. It’s too hard for the stock market to ignore 30-year rates that are solidly above 5%.”
I think that we have finally reached a major tipping point.
Global oil inventories are rapidly disappearing, and that means that a whole lot of pain is on the horizon…
Even so, Kpler analysts wrote, “buffers are eroding fast.” After the first phase of the war drew down global oil inventories throughout both governmental strategic reserves and the commercial sector’s own stores, the global oil market is now effectively functioning like a savings account for someone who just lost their job, Rabobank’s DeLaura said.
The market is effectively treating the situation as manageable because global inventories haven’t reached zero, he said. Yet with no solution in sight, that picture grows ever more perilous.
“We’re pinning everything on these just absolutely lottery ticket kind of ideas that something will happen,” DeLaura said. “The reality is, we’re just going to continue to grind out our inventories and savings.”
That last paragraph is so true.
Investors have just been assuming that everything would magically work out just fine somehow.
But relying on “lottery ticket kind of ideas that something will happen” is not a strategy.
Global events really are starting to spiral out of control, and I expect the wars that we are witnessing to escalate significantly.
There isn’t going to be enough oil coming out of the Middle East.
There isn’t going to be enough natural gas, fertilizer, sulfur or helium coming out of the Middle East either.
We have never faced anything like this, and Wall Street is finally starting to get the message.
Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.
About the Author: Michael Snyder’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com. He has also written nine other books that are available on Amazon.com including “Chaos”, “End Times”, “7 Year Apocalypse”, “Lost Prophecies Of The Future Of America”, “The Beginning Of The End”, and “Living A Life That Really Matters”. When you purchase any of Michael’s books you help to support the work that he is doing. You can also get his articles by email as soon as he publishes them by subscribing to his Substack newsletter. Michael has published thousands of articles on The Economic Collapse Blog, End Of The American Dream and The Most Important News, and he always freely and happily allows others to republish those articles on their own websites. These are such troubled times, and people need hope. John 3:16 tells us about the hope that God has given us through Jesus Christ: “For God so loved the world, that he gave his only begotten Son, that whosoever believeth in him should not perish, but have everlasting life.” If you have not already done so, we strongly urge you to invite Jesus Christ to be your Lord and Savior today.
